Disassembling Consent: On Iran and Israel
Your booster shot for war in the Middle East
On February 5th, 2003, Colin Powell sat before the UN making the case for war against Iraq. He claimed that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction—"these are not assertions. What we're giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence." Later that year, President Bush addressed the nation, justifying a war "to disarm Iraq, to free its people, and to defend the world from grave danger."
There were, in fact, no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. The “solid” intelligence was rubble. The Iraq War caused refugee crises, power vacuums, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians. The USA also suffered through thousands of military deaths and three trillion dollars.
On June 13th, 2025, Israel launched missiles into Iran with the justification of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Benjamin Netanyahu is almost certainly lying.
If Israel’s rationale is honest, its attacks are justified. Iran has repeatedly called for the annihilation of Israel. Preventing nuclear proliferation is good. However, Israel has proven itself untrustworthy.
Recent US intelligence reports indicate that Iran is “up to 3 years away” from a nuclear weapon. In March this year, Tulsi Gabbard, the United States Director of National Intelligence, testified that, “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.” Beyond these conflicting reports, there are further reasons to discount Israel’s justification.
Benjamin Netanyahu has a stunning record of being wrong about Iranian nuclear capabilities. In 2002, he testified before Congress: ” There is no question whatsoever that Saddam is seeking, is working, is advancing towards the development of nuclear weapons.” He was wrong. In 1992, Netanyahu claimed Iran was “3-5” years from a nuclear weapon. He was wrong. For the last 30 years, Netanyahu and the Israeli government have cried wolf—and they have been wrong every. single. time. This record of lying indicates that the Israeli government is paranoid, exaggerating, or even misreading intelligence. You should be incredibly skeptical that this time, the wolf is here.
Netanyahu and the Israeli “Defence” Forces have perpetuated war in the Middle East for over a year now. From expanding settlements in the West Bank, funding Hamas, and refusing to do business with the PLO, Israel has not afforded Palestine any opportunity to develop. Moreover, Netanyahu ignored intelligence that indicated Hamas was planning an attack on October 7th. Obviously, Hamas’s massacre of innocent civilians was an atrocity and a war crime—nobody with a heart can support this. Responding with genocide is similarly atrocious and even more worthy of condemnation. These actions indicate that the Israeli government is not interested in preventing large-scale conflicts or, at the very least, is willing to go above and beyond proportional retaliation.
Netanyahu has a massive political incentive to perpetuate conflict. Before the October 7th attacks, Netanyahu was polling poorly and under investigation for corruption. He benefited greatly after the 2023 attacks, and he continues to benefit now. Netanyahu has not been interested in good faith negotiation; rather, he has continued to push conflict, as he admitted: “Without victory in Gaza, we have nothing to go to the polls with.” This follows: nations at war tend to rally around their leaders, preferring stability and unity in times of crisis. As such, Netanyahu’s incentives should be questioned. His actions and words corroborate a desire for conflict—this is his golden opportunity.
The US pursued a deal with Iran (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) to limit its nuclear capabilities. This deal was generally successful—every signer held up their end of the bargain. (Until, of course, Trump reneged and reinstated sanctions, rendering the deal’s economic agreement moot.) In contrast, Israel consistently opposed the deal. Regardless of their justification, a refusal to come to the negotiating table indicates bad faith politics with no opportunity for appeasement.
This war, if pursued for honest reasons, is easily justified. However, the evidence indicates that Israel and Netanyahu, in particular, have likely acted dishonestly.
II. Why War Now?
Netanyahu’s current position incentivizes him to pursue war. However, "Netanyahu loves war” is the kind of absolutist take I find unpersuasive.
A more charitable reading of this situation is that, in the past few years, Iran has slowly increased its nuclear capabilities. Further, Iran has consistently threatened to destroy Israel and funded multiple terrorist groups to act as proxy fighters in the Middle East. For Israel, Iran is an existential threat. Thus, any risk that they develop nuclear weapons is, understandably, magnified. The reason, then, why these fears are only now being acted on is that Iran’s proxies have been sufficiently weakened in the previous months, and because Trump likely gave the go-ahead.
Intelligence suggests that Israel lacks the weapons necessary to destroy Iran’s nuclear hopes. Iran’s “Fordow” is a nuclear facility built deep beneath a mountain. Fully destroying Fordow requires B-2 Bombers—it requires US intervention.
III. Ninety Percent There
The story of Iran and Israel is anything but black and white. Israel’s reasons for pursuing war are understandable—perhaps, even justified. Israel’s security concerns are legitimate and undeniable. However, the evidence concerning this recent conflict is relatively clear. Iran has shown itself willing to negotiate, whereas Israel has not. Iran has, according to US intelligence, not been pursuing nuclear weaponry. Conversely, Israel has exaggerated Iranian nuclear capabilities for three decades. Finally, an overwhelming majority of evidence points to Benjamin Netanyahu as a bad-faith actor at best, and a self-serving warmonger at worst. Let us learn from history and our mistakes. Wars are destabilizing, destructive, and deadly. For war to be justified, for US intervention to be justified, “because Netanyahu says so” is simply insufficient.
Another banger — this one’s really got me going “hmmm”